国防军工深度报告：行业有望否极泰来，更大机会仍在“三新”

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Neutral" with expectations of industry performance relative to the benchmark index fluctuating between -10% and 10% [12]. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that 2024 may be the worst year for the military industry in recent times, with overall revenue and profit declining year-on-year due to pressure on both volume and price [35][85]. - The military industry is expected to enter a recovery phase, with new orders anticipated in the aerospace sector, although pricing remains a concern [73][81]. - The report emphasizes the importance of new technologies, products, and markets, which may offer greater elasticity and investment opportunities [20][27]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - The military industry has seen a decline in revenue, with 71 tracked companies reporting a total revenue of 374.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.06% [85][88]. - The military industry index experienced a significant drop, falling from 9843.23 at the beginning of the year to 8096.74 by September 20, 2024, marking an 18% decline [67][95]. - As of December 27, 2024, the military index rebounded to 10921.48, reflecting a 35% increase since September [95]. 2. Contract Liabilities - Contract liabilities for major aerospace manufacturers have decreased to relatively low levels, with specific figures for companies like AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation and AVIC Engine Company showing significant year-on-year changes [65][90]. - The total contract liabilities for the military sector reached 192.27 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.15% [50]. 3. New Technologies and Products - The report highlights the potential of new technologies in enhancing equipment performance and reducing costs, with a focus on innovations such as stealth technology and MEMS inertial navigation [28]. - New products, particularly in the aerospace sector, are expected to drive significant revenue growth, with companies like AVIC Shenyang and AVIC South Lake being key players [51]. 4. Market Opportunities - The military trade market and the application of military technology in civilian sectors present vast market opportunities, with several listed companies identified as potential beneficiaries [39]. - The report suggests that the military industry will benefit from the modernization goals set for 2027, which will drive demand for new equipment and technologies [75][76].