qscc(600425) 光大证券·2024-12-31 05:52Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Accumulate" [3][23]. Core Views - The launch of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway project is expected to significantly boost cement demand in the southern Xinjiang region [5][12][21]. - The company has experienced a decline in revenue and profit due to lower-than-expected cement demand and price drops [7][13]. - The forecast for the company's net profit for 2024 has been revised down to 410 million yuan, a 31% decrease, with further reductions for 2025 and 2026 [23]. Summary by Sections Market Data - Total shares: 1.605 billion - Total market value: 6.579 billion yuan - Current price: 4.10 yuan - 3-month turnover rate: 140.34% [3]. Company Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported total revenue of 3.5 billion yuan, a 3% decrease year-on-year, and a net profit of 410 million yuan, down 20% [7]. - The cement production in Xinjiang for November 2024 was 4.498 million tons, a 4.5% decrease year-on-year [23]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024 are set at 4.336 billion yuan, with a growth rate of -3.44% [24]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is 572 million yuan, with a growth rate of 38.23% [24]. - The company's dynamic P/E ratio for 2024 is approximately 16x [23]. Industry Context - The China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway is a strategic project that will enhance connectivity and trade between China and Central Asia, potentially increasing infrastructure demand in the region [6][10]. - The completion of the railway is expected to reduce transportation costs and time for goods exported from southern Xinjiang, making it a key growth area for the company [10][12].