2024年12月PMI数据点评：如何理解季节性的下滑？

Group 1: PMI Overview - The manufacturing PMI for December 2024 is reported at 50.1%, indicating stability in the expansion zone for three consecutive months[3] - December PMI typically experiences seasonal declines due to factors such as extreme cold weather and holiday effects, which have historically led to weaker signals in production and supplier delivery times[3] - The increase in the new export orders index by 0.2 percentage points in December 2024 suggests that some medium-sized enterprises are actively seeking to boost exports at year-end[3] Group 2: Sector Performance - The new orders index rose by 0.2 percentage points to 51.0%, marking a four-month consecutive increase, indicating stable domestic demand[3] - Non-manufacturing PMI showed significant improvement, with construction PMI rising by 3.5 percentage points to 53.2% and service PMI increasing by 1.9 percentage points to 52.0%[3] - The increase in construction PMI is likely influenced by the approaching Spring Festival, prompting companies to accelerate project progress[3] Group 3: Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include policy measures falling short of expectations, unexpected changes in the domestic economic landscape, and fluctuations in export demand[3]