Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The Trump administration's industrial policy has focused on revitalizing domestic manufacturing and has employed both competitive and protectionist measures to achieve this goal [5][16] - The core strategy of the Trump administration is to maintain the U.S. advantage in high-tech sectors while restoring the global competitiveness of basic and mid-tier manufacturing [16][67] Summary by Sections Section 1: Characteristics of Trump's First-Term Industrial Policy and Restrictions on China - Since the 1980s, the U.S. has faced "industrial hollowing," prompting a renewed focus on revitalizing manufacturing post-2008 financial crisis [3] - The Obama administration initiated several plans to enhance manufacturing capabilities and innovation ecosystems, particularly in clean energy and advanced technology sectors [4] Section 2: Key Policies and Measures - The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 reduced the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21% to enhance international competitiveness [6] - The administration proposed a 1.5 trillion in local and social investments for infrastructure improvements [6] - The Advanced Manufacturing Leadership Strategy emphasized the strategic importance of manufacturing for economic and national security [6] Section 3: Impact on China - The U.S. has implemented significant tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, and has restricted technology transfers and investments from China [21][10] - The U.S. has intensified scrutiny of Chinese companies, leading to a decline in U.S. venture capital investments in China from 9.7 billion in 2022 [14] Section 4: Future Directions of Trump's Industrial Policy - The administration aims to bring back basic manufacturing to the U.S. and will continue to support traditional industries through favorable policies [40] - The focus will also be on maintaining leadership in high-tech sectors, with increased government investment in AI, aerospace, and quantum technologies [42][50] - The administration plans to further restrict Chinese investments in advanced technology sectors, indicating a continuation of the "decoupling" strategy [43][78] Section 5: Recommendations for China - China should enhance its domestic supply chain capabilities and diversify its market reach to mitigate the impacts of U.S. restrictions [29][80] - Strengthening the innovation ecosystem and increasing the domestic value-added in exports are crucial for maintaining competitiveness [64][79]
宏观观察2024年第59期(总第571期)：特朗普政府产业政策对华影响与应对建议
中国银行·2024-12-31 06:20