宏观经济动态跟踪：零基预算，区别在哪？

Group 1: Economic Policy Insights - The 2024 Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the need for fiscal and tax system reforms, including zero-based budgeting and adjustments in consumption tax collection[2] - Zero-based budgeting aims to enhance the efficiency of fiscal fund usage rather than merely increasing or decreasing funds, aligning with the goal of improving investment effectiveness[2] - A more pronounced expenditure exit mechanism is being established, as seen in Anhui's policy to limit special fund budgets to a maximum of three years, breaking the previous "fixed pattern" of funding[2] Group 2: Budgeting and Funding Strategies - Project-based operations are prioritized, with departments competing for budgets based on project readiness and urgency, as demonstrated in Guangzhou's approach[2] - The integration of scattered fiscal funds into 15 special funds in Anhui aims to improve the efficiency of fiscal fund allocation through cross-departmental coordination[2] - Zero-based budgeting reform is expected to lead to a reduction in redundant expenditures, with Jiangsu saving approximately 1 billion yuan by eliminating duplicate funding applications[2] Group 3: Future Economic Outlook - The central government is anticipated to further expand fiscal support in 2025, with a focus on enhancing local government financial capacity and ensuring basic service guarantees[2] - The recent pilot projects in Zhengzhou have resulted in a budget reduction of 3 billion yuan, achieving a cut rate of 39% for project expenditures[2] - The emphasis on optimizing budget support models suggests that efficiency improvements will be prioritized over mere increases in total funding, which may have significant long-term impacts on macroeconomic growth[2] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - There are risks associated with external pressures and the potential inadequacy of domestic reform implementation[3] - The central government's increased fiscal input may not fully offset the larger contraction at the local level, potentially affecting infrastructure and manufacturing investments[3]