宏观观察2024年第59期（总第571期）：特朗普政府产业政策对华影响与应对建议＊

Policy Overview - The Trump administration's industrial policy aimed to revitalize domestic manufacturing and promote "re-industrialization" through competitive measures and protectionism[3] - The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 reduced the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%, below the average rate of 22.5% among developed countries, to attract businesses to the U.S.[7] - The U.S. manufacturing value added as a percentage of global manufacturing decreased from 16.9% in 2016 to 16.1% in 2020, while China's share increased from 24.9% to 28.9% during the same period[38] Trade and Investment Restrictions - The U.S. implemented significant trade protection measures, with the number of global trade restrictions rising from approximately 600 in 2017 to around 1700 by 2020[81] - The U.S. imposed tariffs of 25% on steel and 10% on aluminum imports in 2018, alongside other protective tariffs on solar panels and washing machines[81] - U.S. venture capital investment in China plummeted from $32.9 billion in 2021 to$9.7 billion in 2022 due to increased restrictions[14] Technology and Supply Chain Control - The Trump administration intensified restrictions on Chinese high-tech companies, including a ban on government contracts with firms like Huawei and ZTE[11] - The Foreign Investment Risk Review Modernization Act expanded the scope of reviews for foreign investments, particularly targeting Chinese investments in sensitive sectors[83] - The U.S. Department of Commerce added numerous Chinese firms to the "Entity List," significantly increasing the number of companies subject to export controls from 41 in 2018 to 134 in 2020[35] Future Directions - The core of U.S. industrial policy under Trump’s second term is expected to focus on maintaining leadership in advanced technology sectors while restoring competitiveness in basic and mid-tier manufacturing[26] - The U.S. aims to reshape critical supply chains domestically to enhance control over various industries and become a "superpower" in manufacturing[26] - China is advised to continue strengthening its domestic supply chains and diversify its markets to mitigate the impact of U.S. restrictions[38]