2025年石化行业年度策略报告：炼化周期筑底，景气复苏可期

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the oil and petrochemical industry is optimistic [2]. Core Insights - The current refining cycle is experiencing a downturn due to weak demand and high costs, but a recovery in industry conditions is anticipated [2][6]. - The refining industry's profitability is primarily influenced by marginal supply and demand changes, with expectations for improvement in the coming years [7][50]. - The petrochemical sector, particularly in the context of major chemical products, is expected to reach a turning point around 2026 [7][51]. Summary by Sections 1. Factors Leading to the Current Downturn - The refining industry is facing a downturn due to concentrated supply release and weak demand, leading to a decline in petrochemical product profitability [9]. - High oil prices have exerted pressure on the cost side, impacting the profitability of chemical products [9][33]. 2. Future Outlook for Refining - The industry is expected to enter a phase of improvement as marginal supply and demand dynamics shift [19]. - The elimination of outdated refining capacity and optimization of production structure are anticipated to enhance profitability for refined oil products [41][50]. 3. Petrochemical Products - The profitability of major chemical products is closely linked to operating rates, with expectations for a bottoming out around 2026 [51]. - The demand for petrochemical products, particularly polyolefins, is projected to improve, driven by their extensive applications across various industries [51][52]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on integrated private refining companies that are likely to benefit from structural adjustments in the industry, such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Dongfang Shenghong [7]. - Additionally, major state-owned enterprises like Sinopec and PetroChina are highlighted for their potential to improve profitability in the refined oil sales sector [7].