山西证券：研究早观点-20241231

Market Trends - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,407.33 with a gain of 0.21% [3] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10,671.16 with a gain of 0.10% [3] - The CSI 300 Index closed at 3,999.05 with a gain of 0.45% [3] - The Small and Medium Enterprise Board Index closed at 6,527.71 with a gain of 0.15% [3] - The ChiNext Index closed at 2,206.29 with a gain of 0.06% [3] - The STAR 50 Index closed at 1,020.63 with a gain of 0.20% [3] Coal Industry Insights - The coal market is experiencing a reduction in port inventories, leading to a rebound in downstream coal prices [25][26] - As of December 27, the reference price for thermal coal in the Bohai Rim was 766 CNY/ton, with a weekly change of -1.42% [26] - The inventory at northern ports decreased by 3.07% to 24.61 million tons [26] - The average price for metallurgical coal at Tianjin Port was 1,780 CNY/ton, with a weekly change of -2.73% [30] - The coal transportation index decreased by 3.21% to 661.29 points [30] Company-Specific Analysis: China Coal Energy (601898.SH) - China Coal Energy is a leading state-owned enterprise in the coal sector, with a focus on the entire coal industry chain [34] - The company has seen an increase in shareholding by its parent company, China Coal Group, which now holds 57.41% of shares [36] - The company is expected to maintain a high dividend payout ratio, projected at 37.7% for 2023 [36] - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024-2026 are 1.30, 1.47, and 1.65 CNY, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 9.1, 8.0, and 7.2 [38] - The investment rating for China Coal Energy has been upgraded to "Buy-A" based on growth prospects and valuation recovery expectations [38]