交通运输2025年度策略报告之出海篇：国际供应链需求看空间，贸易运输需求看结构

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry, consistent with the previous rating [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of international supply chain services driven by the outbound capacity and product exports of Chinese enterprises, highlighting the growing demand for logistics services in both B2B and B2C contexts [2][13]. - It identifies three main segments of growth: international supply chain services, consolidation and port services under the Belt and Road Initiative, and international air logistics driven by cross-border e-commerce [2][13]. - The report suggests that international supply chain services are in the early stages of expansion, with significant growth potential as Chinese manufacturing accelerates its overseas investments [2][13]. - The consolidation and port services are expected to remain stable due to limited impacts from regional tariffs, while international air logistics will benefit from the increasing demand for low-priced Asian e-commerce products in Europe and the U.S. [2][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Supply Chain Services - The demand for international supply chain services is driven by the outbound capacity of Chinese enterprises, with a focus on B2B logistics needs [2][15]. - The report notes that the reduction of the demographic dividend in China is prompting a shift of labor-intensive industries to lower-cost regions, accelerating overseas factory setups [15][25]. - It highlights the increasing reliance on third-party logistics providers as Chinese companies expand internationally, suggesting that domestic logistics brands have a competitive advantage in this transition [2][40]. - Recommended companies include SF Holding, which has accelerated its international strategy and is expected to see significant growth in its international business [2][3]. 2. Consolidation and Port Services - The report indicates that trade with Belt and Road countries is expected to support stable consolidation and port services, with significant growth in consumer spending in these regions [4][2]. - It suggests that the demand for freight services will help absorb excess domestic production capacity, with a focus on companies like COSCO Shipping, Qingdao Port, and China Merchants Port [4][2]. 3. International Air Logistics - The report highlights the rapid growth of cross-border e-commerce in Asia, particularly the demand for low-priced goods in the U.S. and Europe, which is expected to continue driving air logistics demand [5][6]. - It notes that the cross-border e-commerce logistics chain is becoming more efficient, with favorable policies in the U.S. for low-value goods, enhancing the feasibility of direct shipping models [5][6]. - Key companies to watch include Eastern Airlines Logistics and China National Aviation Holding, which are positioned to benefit from the growing air freight demand [6][5].