航空机场行业跟踪分析：旺季弹性兑现，航空货运业有望乘势而上

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2][17]. Core Insights - The year-end TAC peak season elasticity has been realized, and the air freight market remains at a high level of prosperity. The air freight spot market continues to thrive due to the ongoing cross-border e-commerce boom, with the Shanghai (BAI80) freight index at 5327, down 7% week-on-week but up 11% year-on-year, equivalent to 193% of the same period in 2019. The Hong Kong (BAI30) freight index stands at 4411, down 3.2% week-on-week but up 5% year-on-year, also close to last year's peak [5]. - The recent listing of China Cargo Airlines is expected to increase attention on the sector. As the only flag carrier cargo airline in China, it holds the largest market share on major routes to North America and Europe. Eastern Air Logistics, as a leading cargo airline, benefits from the sustained release of cross-border e-commerce dividends [6]. - The government's policies to stabilize foreign trade remain strong, with measures approved to support financial backing, cross-border trade settlements, and overseas smart logistics platform construction. It is expected that foreign trade will maintain stable growth in 2025, highlighting structural growth opportunities [6]. - Investment recommendations suggest that new long-term contracts are likely to see price increases, and the domestic air cargo industry is expected to capitalize on this momentum. Eastern Air Logistics is recommended, with a focus on China Cargo Airlines. The average freight index for Hong Kong and Shanghai is projected to increase by 6.2% and 10.9% year-on-year, respectively, setting a higher price baseline for new long-term contract negotiations [6]. - Eastern Air Logistics plans to distribute cash dividends of 618 million yuan, with a payout ratio of 48% based on the first half of 2024's net profit, indicating a strong performance outlook for the coming year [6]. Summary by Sections - Market Performance: The air freight market is experiencing high demand, with significant year-on-year increases in freight indices for major ports [5]. - Company Developments: The listing of China Cargo Airlines is anticipated to enhance sector visibility, while Eastern Air Logistics continues to lead in operational quality and market share [6]. - Policy Environment: Government measures to support foreign trade are expected to foster a stable growth environment for the industry [6]. - Investment Outlook: The recommendation to invest in Eastern Air Logistics and monitor China Cargo Airlines reflects confidence in the sector's growth potential [6].