FangDa Carbon(600516) 民生证券·2024-12-31 09:49Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [5]. Core Viewpoints - The company's performance has been under pressure due to low electric arc furnace (EAF) steel profits and declining graphite electrode prices. Despite strong demand from the automotive and home appliance sectors, the real estate market remains weak, leading to a decrease in steel demand and prices [19][24]. - The energy-saving and carbon reduction policies are expected to significantly promote the development of EAF steel by 2025, with the EAF steel production anticipated to reach 134 million tons, which may gradually revive the demand for graphite electrodes [2][34]. - The company is solidifying its leading position in the graphite electrode market with the gradual production of ultra-high power graphite electrode projects, which will increase the proportion of high-end products in its product structure [3][38]. Summary by Sections 1. Graphite Electrode Prices Decline, Performance Under Pressure - The report highlights that the EAF steel operating rate is low, and the shipment of graphite electrodes is hindered, resulting in a decline in performance for the first three quarters of 2024, with a net profit of 257 million yuan, down 33.23% year-on-year [19][24]. 2. Energy-Saving and Carbon Reduction Policies Expected to Promote EAF Steel Development by 2025 - The "Special Action Plan for Energy Saving and Carbon Reduction in the Steel Industry" aims for EAF steel to account for 15% of crude steel production by the end of 2025, with a target of 300 million tons of scrap steel utilization [30][34]. 3. Company as a Leader in Graphite Electrodes, Benefiting from Industry Recovery - The company is expected to benefit from the gradual recovery of the graphite electrode market as new production capacities are launched, with projected net profits for 2024-2026 being 331 million, 446 million, and 568 million yuan respectively [3][43]. 4. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The report forecasts the company's net profit for 2024-2026 to be 331 million, 446 million, and 568 million yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 61, 45, and 35 times [4][43].