电力设备：展望2025年，储能赛道优选需求景气度、业绩弹性两条主线

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Add" rating for the industry [2] Core Insights - The European household storage inventory levels still need to be digested, while emerging markets like Pakistan and Ukraine show high demand growth. The inverter exports showed improvement in Q2 2024, with a positive outlook for household storage opportunities in emerging markets by 2025 [1] - In Europe, rising natural gas prices and accelerated household storage depletion are expected to drive rapid growth in the household storage sector in 2025. Emerging markets are experiencing overall electricity shortages, with high electricity price trends in certain regions (e.g., Pakistan), leading to increased demand for household and commercial storage in Southeast Asia and Africa [1] - The balcony micro-storage products are emerging as a new household storage product form, with easy installation and low costs driving downstream demand. The price of a complete balcony photovoltaic system is approximately €600-1200. In H1 2024, Germany installed about 213,000 balcony photovoltaic systems, with an expected total installation of about 275,000 units for the year [1] - The household storage sector's PE-TTM valuation is currently at a relatively low level, and the European household storage market is expected to return to normal growth in 2025, while emerging markets continue to show high prosperity. The report remains optimistic about overseas household storage industry chain targets [1] Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - The energy storage sector has underperformed the market, with a cumulative decline of 1.89% from January to November 2024, compared to a 14.15% increase in the CSI 300 index [11] Large Storage Sector - The report highlights sustained overseas demand for large storage, with a focus on companies like Sungrow and Sungen. The domestic large storage market is expected to reach 70GW/140GWh by 2025, continuing a high growth trend [19][37] - In the U.S., the large storage installation scale is projected to reach approximately 14.2GW/44.6GWh by 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 19%/30% [72] - In the Middle East, the demand for large storage is expected to grow significantly, driven by the economic viability of solar and storage solutions [77] Household Storage Sector - The report emphasizes the growth opportunities in emerging markets for household and commercial storage, particularly highlighting companies like Deye and others as key players [20][91] - The inverter export data shows a significant increase in exports in Q2 2024, with a positive outlook for household storage opportunities in emerging markets by 2025 [91]