FangDa Carbon(600516) 民生证券·2024-12-31 10:05Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Fangda Carbon (600516 SH) [9][52] Core Views - The steel industry's energy-saving and carbon reduction policies are expected to drive the development of electric arc furnace (EAF) steel, which will benefit graphite electrode demand [5][8] - Fangda Carbon, as a leading graphite electrode producer, is expected to benefit from the industry recovery due to its new capacity gradually coming online [9][52] Industry Overview - EAF steel production is expected to grow by 27% to 134 million tons by 2025, driven by policy support [1][8] - The Steel Industry Energy-Saving and Carbon Reduction Action Plan aims to increase the proportion of EAF steel to 15% of total crude steel production by 2025 [8][34] - EAF steel currently accounts for less than 10% of China's total steel production in 2023, with a slow increase to 105% expected in 2024 [40][45] Company Performance - Fangda Carbon's performance was under pressure in the first three quarters of 2024, with net profit attributable to the parent company decreasing by 3323% YoY to 257 million yuan [7][36] - Revenue in Q1-3 2024 decreased by 19% YoY, while net profit attributable to the parent company fell by 33% YoY [30] Capacity Expansion - Fangda Carbon's ultra-high-power graphite electrode projects, including the 50,000-ton relocation project in Hefei and the 50,000-ton new project in Meishan, are gradually being put into production, further solidifying its leading position [9][41] - The company's subsidiary, Chengdu Carbon Materials, is a leading producer of isostatic graphite products, with a total planned capacity of 30,000 tons [9][42] Financial Forecasts - The report forecasts Fangda Carbon's net profit attributable to the parent company to be 331 million yuan, 446 million yuan, and 568 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [9][43] - The corresponding PE ratios for 2024-2026 are 61x, 45x, and 35x, respectively [9][52]