Salubris(002294) 海通国际·2024-12-31 10:05Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Outperform" rating for the company, assigning a target price of 46.27 CNY based on a 2024 PE of 83x [2]. Core Insights - The company is expected to clear its procurement risks, with only a few generic drug products remaining outside of the procurement system, accounting for a mere 1-2% of sales. The only product with significant decline risk, Cefuroxime Sodium, has recently won a bid in the Jiangsu province procurement, which may lead to a slight decrease in sales next year [1][14]. - The company is successfully transitioning towards innovation and is poised to enter a high-growth phase for new products. The sales revenue from innovative drugs is projected to exceed 1.5 billion CNY in 2024, nearing 50% of the company's total drug revenue. Additionally, 6-7 innovative drugs are expected to be launched from 2024 to 2026, providing continuous growth for the innovative drug business [1][17][63]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Procurement and Innovation Transition - The company is nearing the end of its procurement risks, with only a few generic drugs left outside the procurement system, which represent a low sales volume [1][14]. - The company has a strong pipeline of innovative drugs, with significant growth expected in the coming years, particularly from products like Aliskiren and Teriparatide [1][17]. Section 2: Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 40.38 billion CNY, 44.08 billion CNY, and 56.94 billion CNY, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 20.0%, 9.1%, and 29.2% respectively. Net profits are forecasted at 6.20 billion CNY, 6.45 billion CNY, and 8.32 billion CNY for the same period [2][63]. - The innovative drug business is expected to generate revenues of 15.10 billion CNY, 23.30 billion CNY, and 35.79 billion CNY from 2024 to 2026, driven by strong performances from key products [63]. Section 3: Clinical Development and Pipeline - The company is focusing on cardiovascular treatments, with several promising candidates in the pipeline, including SAL0120 for resistant hypertension and JK07 for heart failure [18][47]. - JK07, a potential best-in-class NRG1 drug, is currently in global II phase clinical trials, with data expected to be released soon [7][47]. Section 4: Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company has successfully negotiated to include its innovative drugs in the 2024 medical insurance directory, which is expected to facilitate rapid market penetration and sales growth for products like Aliskiren and Fozagliflozin [25][41]. - The innovative drugs are anticipated to outperform competitors in terms of efficacy and safety, enhancing the company's market position [41][43].