农林牧渔行业2025年投资策略：景气延续，布局龙头

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [61]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the current industry is characterized by a "declining profit center, increased short-term cyclical volatility, and a stabilizing competitive landscape" [2][63]. - The report suggests three categories of investment opportunities in the pig farming sector: 1. Leading companies with low costs that can enjoy excess returns, such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group. 2. Companies with restructuring expectations and improving operational conditions, such as Zhengbang Technology [3][63]. - In the broiler chicken sector, the report indicates that import restrictions due to avian influenza are expected to prolong the upstream economic cycle [6][63]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming Industry - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on three investment lines: leading low-cost companies, high-growth companies with low costs, and companies undergoing restructuring [63]. - It notes that the industry is experiencing a shift in the profit center and that the supply-demand dynamics are expected to stabilize in the long term [63]. Broiler Chicken Industry - The report discusses the impact of overseas avian influenza on the supply chain, leading to a significant decline in the number of breeding stock updates, which is expected to affect prices and production capacity [7][12][63]. - It highlights that the supply of parent stock is tight, driving up prices, and that the demand for commodity chicks is expected to rise due to seasonal replenishment needs [35][63]. Yellow Chicken Industry - The report indicates that the industry is at a low production capacity and emphasizes the need to monitor improvements in demand [63]. Feed Industry - The report anticipates a recovery in feed demand due to the increase in pig stocks and a rebound in aquaculture markets, supported by favorable policies and consumer demand recovery [63]. Pet Food Industry - The report notes that the pet food sector is experiencing robust growth, with domestic consumption expected to exceed 300 billion yuan in 2024, driven by the growth of leading companies' proprietary brands [44][63].