Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Leading the Market" [7] Core Viewpoints - The power market is facing both challenges and opportunities, with a recommendation to focus on companies in power forecasting and load aggregation, such as Guoneng Rixin, Anke Rui, and Langxin Group [5] - The electricity trading volume in Guangdong Province for 2025 is projected to be 341.094 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 32.10%, with an average transaction price of 391.86 yuan/MWh, down 73.76 yuan/MWh or 15.84% year-on-year [7] - The electricity trading volume in Jiangsu Province for 2025 is expected to be 328.22 billion kWh, a year-on-year decrease of 8.98%, with an average price of 412.45 yuan/MWh, down 40.49 yuan/MWh or 8.94% year-on-year [7] - The annual electricity trading has cleared price risks, with the average transaction price in Guangdong for 2025 expected to be 391.86 yuan/MWh, reflecting a downward pressure on prices due to supply-demand structure and market competition [7] - The rapid increase in new energy installations and the commissioning of new thermal power units have led to a surplus in electricity supply, contributing to the downward trend in electricity prices [7] - The average utilization hours of national power generation equipment from January to November 2024 decreased by 151 hours compared to the same period last year, indicating a tightening demand [7] - The coal price has been on a downward trend, with market thermal coal prices expected to fall below long-term contract prices by 2025 [7] - The average price of electricity in Guangdong's spot market dropped to 0.3178 yuan/kWh, a year-on-year decrease of 26.74% [7] - The report highlights the increasing participation of new energy in market trading, with significant growth in the proportion of photovoltaic and wind power entering the market by 2025 [7] - The report suggests that with the clearing of electricity price risks, the focus shifts to investment opportunities in the power sector, particularly in companies like Changjiang Electric Power, China Nuclear Power, and Huadian International [7] Summary by Sections - Electricity Market Dynamics: The report discusses the ongoing marketization of the electricity sector, with various provinces implementing long-term electricity prices and the impact of new energy sources on market dynamics [7] - Trading Volume and Price Trends: Detailed statistics on trading volumes and average prices in Guangdong and Jiangsu provinces for 2025, highlighting significant year-on-year changes [7] - Supply and Demand Analysis: An analysis of the supply-demand structure, including the effects of new energy installations and coal price trends on electricity prices [7] - Investment Recommendations: The report emphasizes the potential for investment in the electricity sector, particularly in leading companies and regions, as the market continues to evolve [7]
电气设备：多地长协电价落地，电力市场化进程持续推进
华金证券·2024-12-31 10:33