奈飞（NFLX）：广告业务长坡厚雪，积极引入体育赛事

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of $994.57 [7]. Core Insights - Netflix is expected to leverage its advertising platform to initiate a second growth curve, with projected advertising revenues reaching $840 million, $2.91 billion, and $6.08 billion in 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4][28]. - The company anticipates a significant increase in advertising subscription members, from 9.2 million at the end of 2023 to 45 million by the end of 2024 [4]. - Netflix's CPM (Cost Per Mille) is industry-leading, and the penetration rate of its advertising package is currently below the industry average, indicating substantial growth potential [10][22]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for Netflix are adjusted upwards by 1.2%, 3.8%, and 6.1% for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, primarily due to better-than-expected growth in advertising subscription members [6]. - Net profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are raised to $8.66 billion, $11.15 billion, and $13.07 billion, reflecting improved revenue and lower growth in content costs [6]. Advertising Strategy - The advertising strategy is expected to significantly enhance revenue, with projections of $2.91 billion and $6.08 billion in advertising revenue for 2025 and 2026 [10][28]. - Netflix's advertising subscription members are projected to reach approximately 62 million and 70 million in 2025 and 2026, respectively [10][28]. - The company plans to launch its own advertising server by 2025, which will improve ad targeting and ROI for advertisers [4]. Content Investment - Netflix is expected to spend $17 billion on content in 2024, with a focus on sports events to attract new subscribers and sponsors [5][22]. - The company is enhancing its content library with popular series and local productions, which is expected to strengthen its competitive position [22][72]. Market Position - Netflix's user engagement is significantly higher than competitors, with an average daily usage time of 33 minutes compared to Hulu's 16 minutes and Disney+'s 8 minutes [24][67]. - The company is well-positioned in the global streaming market, with a market share of approximately 30% in North America [66]. Pricing Strategy - Netflix's pricing strategy includes raising subscription prices for ad-free plans while offering a lower-priced ad-supported plan to attract price-sensitive users [80][79]. - The ad-supported plan, launched at $6.99 per month, is expected to drive significant growth in advertising revenue [79].