食品饮料大众品行业2025年投资策略：预期先行，拐点已至

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific companies [7]. Core Insights - The dairy industry is experiencing a decline in demand, with raw milk prices expected to stabilize by the second half of 2025 due to mild capacity reduction upstream and policy support [4]. - The yogurt market is shifting from ambient to chilled products, with significant declines in ambient yogurt sales [2]. - The snack retail sector is seeing a rise in head brands' bargaining power, with a focus on efficiency and detailed management as competition intensifies [65]. Summary by Sections Dairy Industry - Raw milk prices have decreased from 4.12 yuan/kg in January 2023 to 3.11 yuan/kg in December 2023, with a projected stabilization in 2025H2 [4]. - The dairy product output in November 2024 is expected to be 2.467 million tons, a 4% year-on-year decrease [4]. Yogurt Market - The market share of high-share ambient pure milk has decreased by 6.64%, and ambient yogurt has seen a 16% decline, while chilled yogurt has grown by 16% [2]. Snack Retail Sector - The snack retail market is projected to grow from 80.9 billion yuan in 2023 to 154.7 billion yuan by 2027, with a CAGR of 18% [65]. - The competitive landscape is shifting towards efficiency and detailed management, with a focus on optimizing product categories and increasing private labels [65]. Beverage Industry - The functional beverage segment continues to show growth potential, with significant new product launches in the ready-to-drink tea and sports drink categories [79]. - The market for sugar-free beverages is expected to reach 57.05 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 42.06% [87].