Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" for several companies including 兴业银锡, 中矿资源, and 锡业股份 [3] Core Insights - The strategic importance of minor metals is highlighted, particularly in high-end manufacturing sectors such as defense, new energy vehicles, and fuel cells [9] - Lithium supply growth is expected to slow, with demand being the core variable affecting the market [9][22] - Antimony is projected to remain in a supply-demand imbalance due to strengthened export controls [9][66] - Tin prices are anticipated to rebound due to low inventory levels and a potential industry turnaround [68][81] Industry Overview - The report discusses the performance of the non-ferrous metals industry, emphasizing the strategic attributes of minor metals [5] - The report indicates that the supply peak for lithium has passed, with expectations of a supply surplus in 2025 [9][46] - The demand for lithium is driven by the growth in new energy vehicles and energy storage systems, with global sales projected to increase significantly [33][56] Supply and Demand Analysis - Lithium production is expected to reach 1.3 million tons LCE in 2024, a 24.10% increase year-on-year, with a further increase to 1.6 million tons LCE in 2025 [30][38] - Antimony supply is projected to remain tight, with a demand gap of 1.9/2.8/2.8 thousand tons from 2024 to 2026 [13][66] - Tin supply is expected to increase slightly, with demand driven by the semiconductor industry and stable growth in new energy and photovoltaic sectors [75][87] Price Trends - Tin prices are currently experiencing a rebound due to low inventory levels, with expectations for significant price increases in the near future [68][81] - Antimony prices are expected to rise due to export controls and supply constraints [50][60] - Lithium prices are projected to stabilize as supply growth slows and demand remains robust [22][30]
小金属——2024年度策略报告：新兴产业基石，战略属性凸显
中邮证券·2024-12-31 11:15