房地产行业2025年投资展望：止跌回稳，大城先行

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the real estate industry, particularly focusing on core cities where the market is expected to stabilize and recover first [85] Core Views - The real estate market is expected to stabilize and recover, with core cities leading the way due to stronger demand and policy support [85] - The report predicts a continued decline in housing sales and prices, but at a slower pace, with sales area and prices expected to drop by 13.5% and 5.7% respectively in 2024 [3] - New housing starts are projected to decrease by 18.8% in 2025, reflecting a cautious approach by developers in response to market conditions [5] - The report highlights the resilience of housing prices in higher-tier cities, with first-tier cities expected to see a stabilization in prices due to strong demand and limited supply [16] Sales and Market Trends - The report forecasts a 11.3% decline in housing sales revenue in 2025, with sales area expected to drop by 8.1% [80] - Housing prices in 70 major cities have fallen significantly since their peak, with new home prices down by 9.6% and second-hand home prices down by 16.1% as of November 2024 [69] - The report notes that higher-tier cities have shown greater resilience in housing prices, with first-tier cities experiencing smaller declines and shorter durations of price drops compared to lower-tier cities [73] Construction and Investment - Housing completions are expected to decrease by 10.7% in 2025, with a significant backlog of projects due to the "guaranteed delivery" policy [47] - Construction area is projected to decline by 9.4% in 2025, reflecting a slowdown in new projects and a focus on completing existing ones [53] - Real estate development investment is forecasted to drop by 11.9% in 2025, driven by reduced land purchases and lower construction intensity [59] Policy and Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of policy support in stabilizing the market, with central authorities showing a strong commitment to maintaining market stability [28] - Investment strategies focus on high-quality developers with a strong presence in core cities, such as Poly Development, China Merchants Shekou, and China Resources Land [22] Urban Tier Analysis - First-tier cities are expected to see a faster recovery in housing prices due to strong demand and limited supply, with second-hand home prices likely to stabilize before new home prices [16] - Second-tier cities show a mixed performance, with cities like Hangzhou, Chengdu, and Xi'an leading in price resilience due to strong population inflows and economic growth [16] - Third-tier cities face significant challenges, with weak demand and prolonged inventory pressure, although further price declines are expected to be limited [16]