农林牧渔行业2025年投资展望：农林牧渔行业：把握消费与成长，关注周期景气变化

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry, with an investment rating of "Buy" for 2024 [17][40]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector is expected to benefit from consumption growth and cyclical changes, with a focus on the recovery of demand and supply dynamics in the livestock sector [12][36]. - The report highlights the importance of cost management for pig farming enterprises, indicating that those with cost advantages are likely to achieve moderate expansion while underperforming capacities will be eliminated [11][67]. - The report emphasizes the potential for gene-modified seeds and the restructuring of the agricultural industry due to trade tensions between China and the U.S., which may create favorable conditions for certain agricultural sectors [4][19]. Summary by Sections Main Line One: Focus on the Pig Farming Industry - The pig farming industry is experiencing a structural change post-African swine fever, with increased scale and a reduction in price volatility. The average price of live pigs is projected to be between 15-16 yuan/kg in 2025, down from 2024 but still within a profitable range [11][67]. - The report suggests that the supply of breeding sows will maintain a slow recovery, with the number of breeding sows reaching approximately 40.73 million by October 2024, a slight increase from earlier in the year [7][70]. - Key companies recommended for investment include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Tian Kang Biological, which are expected to benefit from their cost advantages [11][40]. Main Line Two: Consumption Improvement Expectations - The report anticipates a rebound in meat consumption driven by policy incentives, particularly in the poultry and aquaculture sectors, which are expected to show high elasticity in response to improving consumer demand [10][31]. - The poultry industry, particularly the white feather chicken segment, is expected to recover due to structural shortages and improved profitability, while yellow chicken profitability is also projected to remain stable [18][31]. Main Line Three: Trade Tensions and Agricultural Sector Opportunities - The report notes that U.S.-China trade tensions may lead to agricultural products being used as a countermeasure, which could impact prices and highlight the importance of food security strategies [4][19]. - The commercialization of genetically modified seeds is expected to reshape the competitive landscape of the seed industry, with leading companies like Dabeinong and Longping High-Tech being highlighted for their early investments in this area [4][19]. Main Line Four: Growth in Pet Consumption - The pet food market is experiencing robust growth, with domestic brands gaining market share and aligning with health and premiumization trends. Companies such as Zhongchong Co. and Petty Co. are recommended for their strong positioning in this sector [19][19]. - The pet healthcare segment is also expected to see growth, with domestic products gradually replacing imports, providing a second growth curve for companies involved in pet healthcare [19][19].