PMI点评（2024.12）：消费内需带动制造业PMI平稳收官

Manufacturing PMI Insights - December manufacturing PMI slightly decreased by 0.2 to 50.1, remaining above the neutral level for the third consecutive month, indicating stable economic conditions[1] - New orders index rose by 0.2 to 51.0, reaching an 8-month high, reflecting improved overall demand in manufacturing[1] - Consumer goods PMI surged by 0.6 to 51.4, the second-highest level in 16 months, driven by the positive effects of consumption subsidies[1] Structural Challenges - Traditional investment-related indices and strategic emerging industry export orders showed structural weakness, with the export orders index dropping significantly by 3.3 to 44.2, the lowest since September[1] - The inventory index for finished goods rose slightly by 0.5 to 47.9, indicating ongoing challenges in the replenishment process due to declining infrastructure investment growth[1] Economic Outlook - The construction PMI increased sharply by 3.5 to 53.2, primarily influenced by the early Lunar New Year, rather than a trend improvement[1] - Service sector PMI rose by 1.9 to 52.0, reflecting strong consumer demand as the year-end approaches[1] - The report emphasizes that the stability of manufacturing PMI in 2025 will largely depend on the effectiveness of fiscal expansion policies aimed at boosting consumption[1]