全球大类资产观察：美联储降息放缓引发资产波动

Group 1: Stock Market - Recent fluctuations in the US stock market are attributed to the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on interest rate cuts, with expectations for only two cuts in 2025, down from four previously predicted [4][15][58] - The S&P 500 index's increase of 25.2% in 2024 is primarily driven by valuation contributions of 16.2% and profit contributions of 9% [69][92] - The Nikkei 225 index has shown a significant upward trend, closing at 40,281.16 points with a year-to-date increase of 20.37%, leading global asset classes [8][93] Group 2: Bond Market - The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds has risen to a seven-month high due to reduced expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with a recent increase of 10 basis points [15][110] - Japanese bond yields are expected to rise due to inflationary pressures and a weak yen, with the market anticipating potential interest rate hikes [16][102] Group 3: Commodity Market - Oil prices have shown marginal recovery due to improved demand expectations and geopolitical risks, with US crude oil inventories declining significantly [19][128] - Gold prices are under pressure from rising US Treasury yields and a strengthening dollar, leading to a cautious outlook for the precious metal [38][107] - Copper prices have slightly declined due to weak demand and a strong dollar, with current market conditions limiting significant upward movement [22][108] Group 4: Currency Market - The US dollar is expected to maintain strength due to narrowing interest rate cut expectations and robust economic data, with the dollar index reaching a two-year high [110][41] - The Japanese yen is experiencing downward pressure due to the Bank of Japan's dovish stance and uncertainty regarding future interest rate hikes [25][154] - The euro faces depreciation pressures amid weak economic growth and diverging monetary policies between the US and Europe [46][158]