2025Q1锡板块展望：锡：缅甸复产压力仍存

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1][28] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the tin price experienced a strong start in early 2024 due to lower-than-expected exports from Indonesia and ongoing production halts in Myanmar, but it is expected to decline later in the year due to supply increases from overseas mines and concerns about Myanmar's potential resumption of production [4][18] - The supply situation in Indonesia and Myanmar is critical, with Indonesia's exports from January to October 2024 at 35,000 tons, down 36% year-on-year, and Myanmar's imports into China at 72,000 tons, down 51% year-on-year [8][12] - The report quantifies supply fluctuations, estimating a reduction of 75,000 tons from Myanmar and 19,000 tons from Indonesia, with expectations for partial recovery in 2025 [12][18] - Demand for tin, particularly from soldering materials, has been lower than expected, impacting overall consumption and price dynamics [14][18] Summary by Sections Tin Price Summary and Outlook - The tin price in 2024 is expected to show a pattern of initial strength followed by weakness, influenced by supply and demand dynamics [4][18] Supply and Demand Tracking - The report tracks supply from Indonesia and Myanmar, highlighting the significant impact of Myanmar's production status on tin prices [5][12] 2025 Outlook - The report anticipates that if Myanmar resumes production, there may be short-term pressure on tin prices, with overall demand expected to remain stable [18] Demand as a Key Factor - The report emphasizes that demand will be a crucial factor for tin prices in 2024, with high supply and low demand expected to suppress price movements [14][18]