2025年宏观及大类资产年度配置策略：迎风而立，向远而行

Macroeconomic Outlook - The Chinese economy is expected to grow around 5.0% in 2025, with nominal GDP growth rebounding by approximately 2 percentage points due to improved economic fundamentals and supportive fiscal and monetary policies[1] - Consumption is projected to be the main driver of economic growth, with a significant increase in consumer spending expected to reach a growth rate of 5-6%[27] - Manufacturing investment is anticipated to improve, supported by equipment upgrades and a recovery in infrastructure investment, with fixed asset investment growth expected to exceed 5%[29] Commodity Market - Global commodity prices are expected to see a slight increase in the price center due to a weak recovery, with domestic demand stabilizing and external demand gradually improving in the second half of 2025[2] - Domestic commodity prices are likely to be under pressure from a strong dollar and trade tensions, particularly affecting domestic demand-driven commodities[2] Stock Market - The stock market is identified as the best asset allocation, benefiting from favorable economic fundamentals and government support, with an expected upward trend in the second half of 2025 as economic conditions improve[1] - The domestic stock market may face some adjustment pressure in the first half of 2025 due to potential trade conflicts and a decline in external demand[73] Currency and Exchange Rate - The RMB is expected to face depreciation pressure in the first half of 2025 due to trade tensions and a strong dollar, but this pressure may ease in the second half as economic conditions improve[3] - The overall exchange rate dynamics will be influenced by the ongoing trade war and the performance of the US dollar[3] Risk Factors - Key risks include escalating US-China tensions, potential underperformance of domestic stimulus policies, and unexpected tightening of liquidity conditions[3]