2024年中国乳制品行业研究报告

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable growth outlook for the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) market, with an overall growth rate of 3.0% in 2024, despite a decline in the dairy sector [2][6][33]. Core Insights - The dairy market is experiencing a shift due to the rise of plant-based alternatives, leading to a projected decline in dairy sales by 3.1% in 2024 [2][11]. - The competitive landscape of the dairy industry is characterized by two major players, Yili and Mengniu, which dominate the market with a combined market share exceeding 50% [9][78]. - The consumption structure in the dairy sector is primarily composed of liquid milk and milk powder, with liquid milk holding the largest market share at 44.0% [9][21]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The overall FMCG market is recovering with a growth rate of 3.0% in 2024, while categories like alcoholic beverages and non-alcoholic drinks are growing at 6.4% and 6.3% respectively [6][33]. - The dairy sector is facing challenges, with a projected sales decline of 3.1% in 2024 due to competition from plant-based products [11][33]. Competitive Landscape - The dairy industry is led by Yili and Mengniu, which have significantly higher revenues compared to other players, with a combined market share of 56.1% [78]. - Yili's revenue reached 1,261.8 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.7% from 2019 to 2023 [58][81]. - Mengniu's revenue in 2023 was 986.2 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 6.5% [63]. Consumption Trends - Liquid milk and milk powder are the main consumption categories, with liquid milk accounting for 44.0% of the market [9][21]. - The demand for yogurt is increasing, now representing 20.8% of the market, driven by rising health awareness among consumers [22]. - The consumption of UHT milk is growing, while low-temperature fresh milk, despite its smaller market share of 17%, shows potential for growth due to increasing consumer focus on freshness and nutrition [23][44]. Supply Dynamics - The dairy production in China has shown fluctuations, with a general trend of increasing production capacity that exceeds market demand, leading to a decline in raw milk prices [9][13]. - The report highlights that the control of milk sources by midstream dairy companies is gradually strengthening, which is crucial for maintaining product quality [14][35].