量化分析报告：十二月社融预测：30863亿元

• The report introduces a bottom-up framework for forecasting social financing (社融), which is constructed by analyzing the characteristics of each sub-item of social financing, such as economic logic, high-frequency data, and seasonality. This approach allows for detailed predictions of both the total amount and structure of social financing[1][9] - The framework includes specific prediction methods for various sub-items of social financing. For example, corporate loans and short-term residential loans are forecasted using PMI and Tangshan steel mill capacity utilization as independent variables in rolling regression models. Long-term residential loans are predicted based on housing sales data. Government bonds and corporate bonds are tracked using high-frequency issuance and maturity data, with adjustments for discrepancies in data scope[9][10] - The prediction for December 2024 anticipates new social financing of approximately 3.09 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.15 trillion yuan. The breakdown includes 1.17 trillion yuan in new RMB loans, 1.77 trillion yuan in net government bond financing, and 0.04 trillion yuan in net corporate bond financing. The total social financing stock is expected to grow by 8.09% year-on-year[9][16]