KELUN PHARMA(002422) 海通国际·2025-01-01 06:02Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price of RMB 45.15 and a market capitalization of RMB 72.30 billion [63][93] Core Viewpoints - The company achieved revenue of RMB 16.80 billion in Q1-3 2024, a YoY increase of 6.64%, with net profit attributable to shareholders reaching RMB 2.47 billion, up 25.85% YoY [1][5] - For 2024-26, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be RMB 3.09/3.14/3.24 billion, growing 25.7%/1.8%/3.2% YoY [63][93] - The company's gross profit margin for Q1-3 2024 was 52.51%, a slight decrease of 0.43pct YoY, while the net profit margin improved to 17.40%, up 3.79pct YoY [65][69] Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue for 2024-26 is projected to grow at 11.9%/10.0%/9.2% YoY, reaching RMB 239.96/264.05/288.21 billion [2][4] - Net profit for 2024-26 is forecasted to be RMB 3.09/3.14/3.24 billion, with YoY growth rates of 25.7%/1.8%/3.2% [2][4] - The company's gross margin is expected to remain stable, with forecasts of 52.3%/52.9%/54.1% for 2024-26 [2][4] Business Segment Analysis - Infusion products are expected to grow at 10%/10%/5% for 2024-26, with revenue reaching RMB 11.07/12.18/12.79 billion [25][64] - Non-infusion drugs are projected to grow at 4%/4%/4% for 2024-26, with revenue reaching RMB 4.11/4.28/4.45 billion [25][64] - Antibiotic APIs and intermediates are forecasted to grow at 28%/13%/11% for 2024-26, with revenue reaching RMB 6.20/7.02/7.75 billion [25][64] - Innovative drugs are expected to see significant growth, with revenue projected to increase by 376%/96% in 2025-26, reaching RMB 1.02 billion [25][64] Expense Analysis - Sales expense ratio for Q1-3 2024 was 15.57%, a decrease of 5.07pct YoY, while the G&A expense ratio increased by 1.35pct YoY to 5.84% [65][69] - R&D expense ratio for Q1-3 2024 was 9.44%, a decrease of 1.14pct YoY [65][69]