Leaderdrive(688017) 国信证券·2025-01-01 08:40Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2][15]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue growth of 26% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2024, driven by the recovery in the industrial robot sector. The total revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 2.76 billion yuan, with a net profit of 0.59 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 18.85% year-on-year. The third quarter alone saw a revenue of 1.04 billion yuan and a profit of 0.22 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 1.63% [2][4][10]. - The company is a leader in the domestic harmonic reducer market and has been expanding its product offerings, including mechatronic products and hydraulic control systems. The R&D expense ratio remains high, with a year-on-year increase of 14% [2][4][20]. - The production of industrial robots is expected to increase, with a year-on-year growth of 29.3% in November 2024. The company is well-positioned to benefit from the growing humanoid robot market, which is projected to reach a market size of approximately 200-250 billion USD by 2040 [2][4][20]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.76 billion yuan and a net profit of 0.59 billion yuan, with a third-quarter revenue of 1.04 billion yuan, reflecting a 1.63% increase year-on-year. The gross and net profit margins for the first three quarters were 39.53% and 21.71%, respectively, showing a decline due to low capacity utilization and increased expense ratios [2][4][10][25]. - The company forecasts a net profit of 0.89 billion yuan for 2024, with projections of 1.21 billion yuan in 2025 and 1.56 billion yuan in 2026, indicating a recovery in profitability [2][24][31]. Market Position and Growth Potential - The company is expanding its core product layout and has a strong position in the harmonic reducer market. The production capacity is expected to significantly increase following the completion of IPO and fundraising projects, which will enhance the company's ability to meet market demand [2][4][20]. - The humanoid robot market presents a substantial growth opportunity, with the company positioned to capture a significant share due to its advanced technology and product offerings [2][4][20]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s stock is currently valued at 111.95 yuan, with a market capitalization of 18.893 billion yuan. The projected PE ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 217, 159, and 123, respectively, indicating a premium valuation compared to peers [2][15][31].