银行理财月度观察（2024年12月）：从五个维度看2025年银行理财运行

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the banking wealth management industry [1]. Core Insights - In 2024, the banking wealth management sector is expected to experience significant growth driven by deposit disintermediation, although growth momentum may slow due to fluctuations in the stock and bond markets. The operational logic of wealth management may see new marginal changes in 2025 [1][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Wealth Management Scale - The report estimates a neutral forecast for a growth increment of 2-3 trillion yuan in 2025, with deposit disintermediation being a crucial support factor. The wealth management scale is projected to reach approximately 32-33 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, with a potential fluctuation range of 31-34 trillion yuan depending on market conditions [1][4][42]. 2. Product Layout - Low-volatility and stable products remain the cornerstone of the wealth management sector, while structured opportunities may arise in niche markets such as rights-embedded wealth management products. The classification of wealth management products is expected to become more refined, with a focus on stable, low-volatility offerings [1][21][22]. 3. Asset Allocation - The proportion of deposit assets may face fluctuations, leading to a more diverse asset allocation landscape. The report highlights that the allocation to deposit-type assets has slightly decreased, indicating a shift towards more varied investment strategies [1][56][82]. 4. Product Returns - The overall return center for wealth management products is under pressure, with expected increases in net value volatility. The report anticipates that fixed-income product returns will decline due to a shift in monetary policy towards moderate easing, which may also affect the attractiveness of wealth management products [1][64][87]. 5. Competitive Landscape - The market share of wealth management companies is expected to increase, with a convergence in market share differences among state-owned and joint-stock banks. The report notes that the expansion of distribution channels will play a significant role in the growth of wealth management product scales [1][68][91].