石油石化行业专题研究：能化中游——库存周期拐点，或先于产能拐点到来

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the inventory cycle turning point may arrive before the capacity turning point for the midstream sector of the energy and chemical industry. Upstream and midstream inventory is currently diverging, with upstream crude oil and coking coal in China at high levels, while midstream refining and coking products are nearing the end of active destocking, with a potential shift to passive destocking in 2025, increasing the likelihood of price rises [1][60]. Summary by Sections 1. Inventory - There is a significant divergence in inventory levels between upstream and midstream sectors. Upstream crude oil and coking coal inventories in China are at high levels, while downstream inventories of coke and steel are at five-year lows, reflecting weak terminal demand [7][9][34]. 2. Capacity - The report forecasts that the capacity growth for major petrochemical products will slow significantly by 2026, with ethylene, propylene, and polypropylene expected to maintain growth rates of 13%, 12%, 23%, and 20% respectively until 2025. However, the growth rate for aromatics and downstream products is projected to be much lower [45][46]. 3. Raw Materials - The report anticipates a stable decline in raw material prices in 2025, with crude oil prices expected to average around $75 per barrel and coal prices expected to decrease slightly from 860 RMB for thermal coal and 1833 RMB for coking coal [47][48]. 4. Price Differentials - The report highlights a "see-saw" effect in price differentials, where the price spread for gasoline and diesel is weakening, while the spreads for by-products like naphtha and fuel oil remain strong. This is attributed to peak domestic refined oil consumption and constrained by-product output [50][76]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on two categories of products: 1) Refinery by-products such as naphtha, fuel oil, asphalt, and petroleum coke due to weak gasoline and diesel consumption; 2) Liquid products with low inventories that are likely to see price increases, including EO/EG, acrylic acid, and styrene [28][83]. Recommended companies include Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Satellite Chemical, Baofeng Energy, Dongfang Shenghong, Jineng Technology, and China Xuyang Group H [61].