政策与大类资产配置月观察：跨年迎接新政“组合拳”

Group 1: Domestic Policy Insights - The fifth national economic census results indicate a revision of the 2023 GDP to 129.4 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.4 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 2.7% [10][30][52] - The census revealed that by the end of 2023, there were 33.27 million legal entities engaged in secondary and tertiary industries, a 52.7% increase compared to the end of 2018, with 428.984 million employees, up 11.9% [10][30] - The State Council has implemented reforms in the accounting methods for self-owned housing services, which are now included in GDP calculations, enhancing the accuracy of economic data [10][22][52] Group 2: Market Analysis - The A-share market has seen a slight adjustment in late December, with the Shenzhen Composite Index and ChiNext dropping over 3%, while the MSCI China A-share Index fell by 5.2% [31][32] - The overall market liquidity remains ample, with the central bank withdrawing a total of 828.6 billion yuan since December 20, leading to a rebound in the DR007 rate to nearly 2% [32][35] - The commodity market has shown mixed performance, with non-ferrous metals slightly rising, while precious metals experienced a minor decline [32][35] Group 3: Financial Sector Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has approved several mergers and acquisitions in the securities industry, indicating a trend of consolidation among major brokerages [35][56] - The CSRC has also expanded the scope of institutions eligible for swap facilitation, aiming to enhance market stability and improve investor expectations [30][56] Group 4: Economic Outlook - The report anticipates a continued focus on monetary easing and proactive fiscal policies in 2025, with expectations of a gradual recovery in economic conditions [32][34] - The potential for increased consumer spending and supportive policies for livelihoods and consumption is expected to strengthen economic growth in the coming year [32][34]