【浙商宏观||李超】12月PMI:经济回升,目标无虞

Group 1: Energy and Manufacturing Insights - The average daily power generation from coal-fired power plants decreased by 3.4% month-on-month and 10.6% year-on-year during the period from December 12 to December 20, 2024[2] - The average daily coal consumption for power generation increased to 582 million tons, a 9.4% increase from December 15, 2024[20] - The manufacturing PMI for December was recorded at 52.1%, indicating a slight decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, but still reflecting strong production intentions[19] Group 2: Economic Activity and Consumer Behavior - The service sector's business activity index rose to 52.0%, up 1.9 percentage points from the previous month, marking the highest level since April 2024[24] - The total number of vehicles scrapped and replaced reached nearly 2.7 million, with over 3.1 million vehicle replacements and over 33.3 million consumers purchasing related home appliances[4] - The construction industry business activity index increased to 53.2%, a rise of 3.5 percentage points, indicating a return to expansion[7] Group 3: Price Trends and Profitability - The raw material purchase price index fell to 48.2%, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points, indicating a downward trend in procurement prices[48] - Industrial profits for large-scale enterprises decreased by 7.3% year-on-year in November, reflecting ongoing pressure on profitability amid high costs and insufficient demand[23] - The producer price index for December was recorded at 46.7%, down 1 percentage point from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prices[48] Group 4: Policy and Market Outlook - The monetary policy is expected to maintain a slightly loose tone, with limited likelihood of contractionary policies being introduced in the near term[8] - The overall demand in December remained in the expansion zone, supported by consumer demand and policy measures[21] - The anticipated fiscal stimulus measures are expected to create a favorable financial environment for high-quality economic development[18]