CAPOL(002949) 广发证券·2025-01-01 23:31Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 21.05 CNY per share, based on a 22x PE valuation for 2025 [29][30] Core Views - The company's traditional architectural design business has slowed down, prompting a strategic shift towards the digital culture sector, particularly micro-short dramas [1][40] - The micro-short drama market is rapidly expanding, with the market size reaching 37.39 billion CNY in 2023, a tenfold increase from two years ago, and is expected to surpass 100 billion CNY by 2027 [1][40] - The company has established a digital culture subsidiary and partnered with the Jiangxi government to develop a digital film and television industry base, leveraging policy support in the region [1][64] Business Transformation and Digital Culture Sector - The company has invested 100 million CNY to establish a digital culture industry development fund and set up a subsidiary, Huayang Digital Culture (Jiangxi) Company, focusing on micro-short dramas [32][35] - The company plans to collaborate with multiple platforms for content distribution and marketing, with a focus on paid content and advertising as primary revenue streams [7][9] - The micro-short drama industry is characterized by high revenue but low profitability, with significant costs associated with marketing and platform fees [7][49] Financial Performance and Projections - The company's revenue is expected to decline in 2024 due to the slowdown in its traditional architectural design business, but it is projected to recover in 2025 and 2026, with net profits of 151 million CNY, 188 million CNY, and 213 million CNY respectively [13][36] - The architectural design business, particularly in residential projects, is expected to see a decline in 2024 but recover in 2025 and 2026, with growth rates of -25%, 10%, and 10% respectively [70][72] - The engineering consulting business is expected to stabilize, with revenue growth of -15%, 15%, and 15% from 2024 to 2026, and a stable gross margin of around 40% [48][72] Industry and Market Analysis - The micro-short drama industry is highly competitive, with platforms dominating the revenue share due to their control over user traffic and marketing channels [7][9] - The company's entry into the micro-short drama market is seen as a strategic move to diversify its revenue streams and capitalize on the growing demand for digital content [1][40] - The company's partnership with the Jiangxi government provides a strategic advantage, with policy support for digital culture and streamlined approval processes for content production [64]