华峰铝业：空调铝代铜或加速，公司将充分受益

Investment Rating - Maintain Buy rating [4] Core Views - Gree Group's investment in an aluminum tube manufacturing project accelerates the application of aluminum replacing copper in air conditioners The project involves a 180 million yuan investment with an annual production capacity of 15,000 tons and expected sales revenue of 500 million yuan [4] - Aluminum replacing copper in air conditioners offers significant cost reduction and performance advantages Aluminum microchannel heat exchangers improve heat exchange efficiency by over 30%, reduce refrigerant charge by 50%, and decrease volume and weight by 30% and 50% respectively [4] - The penetration rate of aluminum microchannel air conditioners is 5% in China and 40% overseas, indicating substantial market potential If China's penetration rate increases to 40%, global demand for brazed aluminum materials for air conditioner heat exchangers could rise from 66,000 tons to 220,000 tons [4] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the aluminum replacing copper trend with existing product layouts in the civil air conditioning sector Its products are widely used in automotive, air conditioning, power electronics, and high-speed rail sectors [4] - The company is a leading player in automotive thermal management aluminum materials The new Chongqing base will expand production capacity, and the company's profitability leads the industry with products in automotive, air conditioning, energy storage, and data center liquid cooling materials [4] Financial Summary - Estimated net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024-2026 is 1,250/1,598/1,897 million yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 15/11/10 [4] - Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected at 11,483/13,069/15,949 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 23 6%/13 8%/22 0% [15] - Gross margin for 2024-2026 is expected to be 17 8%/19 3%/19 2%, with ROE of 21 9%/21 9%/20 6% [15] Market Data - Closing price on December 31, 2024: 18 32 yuan [2] - Price-to-book ratio: 3 5 [2] - Dividend yield: 1 09% [2] - Market capitalization of circulating A shares: 18,293 million yuan [2] - Shanghai Composite Index/Shenzhen Component Index: 3,351 76/10,414 61 [2] Industry Trends - Aluminum replacing copper in air conditioners is accelerating due to cost and performance advantages [4] - The company is expected to benefit significantly from this industry trend with its diversified product applications and new project developments [4]