开源证券：开源晨会-20250102

Group 1 - The report indicates that the controlling shareholder of Kaiyuan Securities, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry Group Co., Ltd., holds 5.43% of Xin Fengming's shares through its subsidiary, Qiongcheng Shengbang Investment Management Co., Ltd. Despite the relationship, both companies operate as independent legal entities with complete governance structures, meaning Kaiyuan Securities cannot influence the investment actions of Qiongcheng Shengbang [1] - Kaiyuan Securities is a securities operating institution approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission and is qualified for securities investment consulting business [2] - The report highlights that Kaiyuan Securities may participate in or hold securities related to the report, or provide services to the companies involved without prior notice to clients [3] Group 2 - The macroeconomic outlook suggests that infrastructure investment will drive GDP growth, with an expected GDP growth rate of approximately 5.0% for 2024 [6][46] - The manufacturing sector shows a seasonal decline in PMI but remains in an expansionary phase, with improvements in supply and demand structures [13] - The non-manufacturing sector, particularly the construction industry, has shown significant improvement, with 21 out of 23 service sectors experiencing an uptick in PMI [14][24] Group 3 - The report discusses the industry rotation model, indicating that the recommended sectors for January include oil and petrochemicals, public utilities, environmental protection, transportation, basic chemicals, beauty care, real estate, banking, non-ferrous metals, and pharmaceutical biology [28][37] - The report emphasizes the importance of asset allocation strategies, recommending a focus on short-term bonds, equity-oriented convertible bonds, and gold assets [53] - The convertible bond market is highlighted for its investment value, with a focus on the "attack and defense" investment goal, suggesting that convertible bonds are more attractive compared to traditional equity [55][61]