煤炭行业2025年度策略：坚守高股息，布局稳成长

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook for the coal industry, with expectations of a decline in imports and a stable domestic supply [4][11][62]. Core Insights - The report highlights that China's coal imports are expected to decrease by 2025, particularly for Indonesian coal, due to a shift in price competitiveness and domestic supply conditions [4][11]. - The demand for electricity and chemical coal is projected to continue growing, while steel and construction materials are expected to see a reduction in demand, albeit at a slower rate [12][61]. - The overall coal production is anticipated to increase, with new capacities coming online, while imports are expected to decline [62][74]. Supply Summary - Coal imports for thermal coal are projected to decline, while imports of coking coal from Mongolia are expected to maintain growth due to favorable mining conditions [8][11]. - The report notes that Australian coal production is expected to decrease significantly due to the closure of several mines, impacting global supply dynamics [7]. - Domestic coal production is forecasted to grow by approximately 10 million tons in 2025, driven by the recovery of production in Shanxi and new capacities in regions like Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia [74]. Demand Summary - China's total coal consumption is expected to see slight growth, primarily driven by electricity and chemical sectors, while steel and construction sectors are projected to experience declines [13][61]. - The report indicates that the steel industry will face reduced coal consumption due to a slowdown in real estate and infrastructure investments, with a projected decrease of around 3% in coal consumption for steel [26][54]. - The construction materials sector is also expected to see a significant decline in coal consumption, with a projected drop of 7.4% [33][60]. Inventory Summary - The report notes that social coal inventories have accumulated to high levels, with a focus on the need for downstream destocking in 2025 [61]. - Port and power plant inventories have increased significantly, indicating a supply-demand imbalance in the short term [38][44]. Price Summary - Coal prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in 2025, with limited volatility in company performance anticipated [61][72]. - The report provides a detailed forecast of coal prices, indicating a downward trend in 2024, with average prices expected to stabilize in 2025 [72]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining high dividend stocks and focusing on stable growth opportunities within the coal sector [61].