房地产：百强销售延续筑底，主流房企更具韧性

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [8][10][15] Core Insights - The report indicates that the sales threshold for the top 100 real estate companies in 2024 continues to decline, with the top 10 sales amount threshold dropping to 105.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 31.3% [2][10] - The number of billion-yuan real estate companies is expected to decrease to 11 in 2024, returning to the level seen in 2016 [2][10] - The report suggests that the sales of the top 100 real estate companies will continue to stabilize, with a focus on resilient performance from leading firms [10][17] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In 2024, the total sales amount for the top 100 real estate companies is projected to be 4.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 30.3%, with sales area decreasing by 32.4% [26] - The fourth quarter sales amount reached 1.3 trillion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 56.2%, with December sales amounting to 474.2 billion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 22.7% [26] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on companies with lighter historical burdens and optimized inventory structures, such as Greentown China, China Overseas Development, and Poly Development [10] - The report also highlights the importance of valuation recovery for firms like Vanke A and Jin Di Group [10] Market Outlook - The report maintains a view of "stabilization after decline" for the real estate market, predicting a 6.5% year-on-year decrease in national commodity housing sales area in 2025 [26] - Potential policy support, such as land acquisition and urban village renovations, could lead to better-than-expected sales performance [26]