Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [20][24]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that starting from January 2025, TSMC will increase the foundry prices for its 3nm, 5nm, and CoWoS processes by 5% to 20% [20]. - There is a significant increase in demand for CoWoS and similar packaging capacities, projected to grow by 113% globally by 2025, driven by the strong demand for cloud AI accelerators [20]. - TSMC's monthly capacity is expected to rise to 65,000 wafers by the end of Q4 2025, with major clients like NVIDIA benefiting from this increase [20]. - The transition from CoWoS-S to CoWoS-L is becoming evident, with NVIDIA's demand for CoWoS-L expected to surge from 32,000 wafers in 2024 to 380,000 wafers in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 1018% [20]. - The report anticipates that by Q4 2025, CoWoS-L will account for 54.6% of TSMC's total CoWoS capacity, while CoWoS-S will represent 38.5% [20]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the increasing prices of TSMC's 3nm and 5nm processes, which are expected to rise by 5% to 10%, and CoWoS technology prices are projected to increase by 15% to 20% due to high demand in the AI sector [20]. Market Demand - The demand for CoWoS packaging is driven by NVIDIA's products, which will utilize CoWoS-L technology in their B300 and GB300 series starting in 2025 [20]. - Other companies such as AMD and major tech firms like Broadcom, Microsoft, Amazon, and Google also show a certain level of demand for CoWoS technology [20]. Key Players - Major suppliers in the CoWoS market include TSMC, SPIL, and ASE, which are expanding their capacities to meet the growing demand [20].
集成电路：CoWoS或迎量/价/需三振，L路线有望为主流
Huajin Securities·2025-01-02 00:46