平安证券：晨会纪要-20250102

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the sales of the top 100 real estate companies in China continued to adjust, with a total sales amount of 4.2 trillion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 30.3% [5][6] - The sales area for the top 100 real estate companies was 230 million square meters, down 32.4% year-on-year, with the decline rate expanding compared to 2023 [5] - The report anticipates a 6.5% year-on-year decrease in national commodity housing sales area in 2025, but potential policy support could lead to better-than-expected performance [5] Group 2 - The industry landscape is increasingly differentiated, with mainstream real estate companies showing greater resilience. The sales threshold for the top 10 real estate companies in 2024 is projected to be 105.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 31.3% year-on-year [16] - The number of billion-yuan real estate companies is expected to decrease to 11, returning to 2016 levels, with Poly Developments leading the sales ranking at 323 billion yuan [16] - The report suggests investors focus on mid-term layouts, particularly on companies with lighter historical burdens and optimized inventory structures, such as Greentown China and China Overseas Development [6][16] Group 3 - The manufacturing sector is experiencing a faster recovery in demand than production, with new orders and new export orders indices rebounding, indicating a synchronized recovery in domestic and foreign demand [8] - The service sector's business activity index reached a high point since April 2024, driven by increased economic activity towards the end of the year, particularly in retail, accommodation, and transportation sectors [11][21] - The construction industry is also showing significant improvement, with the business activity index rising to its highest level since June 2024, indicating a recovery in housing and infrastructure projects [21]