Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [19]. Core Viewpoints - The 2025 strategy for the non-ferrous metals market indicates that gold will lead in both probability and odds, driven by the transfer of pricing power and the replacement of U.S. Treasury bonds due to rising deficit rates [53][61]. - The gold market is experiencing a shift in marginal traders from the West to the East, with emerging markets increasingly influencing gold demand [30][31]. - The relationship between U.S. Treasury bonds and gold remains significant, with the U.S. fiscal deficit expected to exceed $2 trillion in 2024, maintaining pressure on bond supply [39][56]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold's annual production is around 3,600 tons, valued at approximately $300 billion at current prices, with total mined gold valued at about $19 trillion [46]. - The supply of gold is relatively stable compared to the increasing supply of U.S. Treasury bonds, which is projected to add about $20 trillion over the next decade [46][39]. - The market is expected to see a continued demand for gold as a potential substitute for U.S. Treasury bonds, especially amid geopolitical uncertainties [59][61]. Copper - The copper market is anticipated to face a year of supply-demand entanglement, with prices expected to fluctuate between $8,000 and $9,000 per ton in Q1 2025 [47][48]. - Long-term inflation expectations are likely to support copper prices, with a potential price increase expected after Q1 2025 [66]. - The copper supply is projected to increase significantly in the next two years, with new mining projects expected to release substantial amounts of copper [70]. Aluminum - The aluminum market is expected to see profit recovery, but caution is advised against overly aggressive positions [78]. - The price of alumina is expected to weaken, but the process may be more challenging than anticipated due to existing supply pressures [49][79]. - The domestic supply of bauxite is under pressure, which could impact alumina prices and overall aluminum production [80][81]. Steel - The global steel demand growth is projected to remain above 2% in the coming years, supported by strong fiscal policies and the increasing penetration of electric vehicles [99]. - The steel market is influenced by macroeconomic factors, with inflation expectations playing a critical role in pricing dynamics [72].
2025年有色金属年度策略：金>铝>银>铜
China Post Securities·2025-01-02 01:39