本轮银行股行情复盘与展望：如何用策略思维看银行

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (Maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of "strategic thinking" in analyzing banks, moving beyond traditional fundamental indicators to consider opportunity costs and relative performance [1][20] - The DDM (Dividend Discount Model) is highlighted as a suitable valuation method for bank stocks, focusing on both the numerator (fundamental performance) and denominator (required return and dividend ratio) [21][60] - The report identifies that the current bank stock performance is driven by a "denominator-driven" market, with falling risk-free rates and improved risk preferences contributing to the positive outlook for bank stocks in 2025 [10][19] Summary by Sections Section 1: Strategic Thinking in Banking - Traditional views focus on fundamental indicators like revenue growth, profit growth, and non-performing loan ratios, while strategic thinking incorporates opportunity costs and relative performance [1][33] - The report discusses the importance of both absolute and relative returns in bank stock performance, linking them to economic variables and the bank's business model stability [40][41] Section 2: DDM Model Insights - The DDM model is presented as a key framework for evaluating bank stocks, with emphasis on understanding the drivers of both the numerator and denominator [21][60] - The numerator is influenced by fundamental performance, while the denominator is affected by risk-free rates, risk evaluation, and risk preferences [51][60] Section 3: Current Market Dynamics - The report notes that the bank stock market has been characterized by a "denominator-driven" environment, with significant contributions from declining risk-free rates and improved risk preferences [10][19] - It highlights that the performance of bank stocks is expected to continue positively into 2025, driven by low valuations and high dividends, particularly for mid-sized banks [10][19] Section 4: Misconceptions in Bank Stock Investment - The report addresses common misconceptions, such as the belief that poor economic conditions will always lead to falling bank stocks, emphasizing that market perceptions and risk evaluations play a crucial role [1][10] - It also discusses the importance of long-term performance over short-term gains, suggesting that stability and resilience are key factors in bank stock valuation [1][10]