国信证券：晨会纪要-20250102

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the downward trend in real estate investment and the relative resilience of manufacturing investment, predicting a continued weak outlook for new real estate investments in 2025 with a projected decline of 7.7% year-on-year in construction investment [3] - It highlights the pressure on construction companies due to declining new orders and cash flow issues, leading to a passive expansion of balance sheets as receivables accumulate [3] - The report anticipates a recovery in valuations for construction companies as asset quality improves with the implementation of debt resolution policies, suggesting a potential rebound in price-to-book (PB) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios [3] Industry and Company - Real estate investment continues to decline, driven by weak sales and a significant drop in new construction starts, leading to a forecasted 3.3% decline in narrow infrastructure investment for 2025 [3] - Manufacturing investment is expected to grow as industrial inventory cycles shift from passive destocking to active restocking, supported by recovering downstream demand [3] - Major construction firms are facing challenges with reduced new orders and cash flow pressures, particularly affecting private enterprises, while state-owned enterprises are gaining market share due to lower financing costs [3] - The report recommends focusing on state-owned construction companies with improved asset quality and cash flow, such as China Railway Construction, China Communications Construction, and China State Construction Engineering, as well as companies involved in major infrastructure projects like nuclear and hydropower [3] - The report suggests that the central government will play a leading role in new incremental investments in 2025, particularly in strategic infrastructure projects [3]