2025大类资产配置年度策略报告：曙光乍现，万象更新

Group 1 - The report indicates that in 2024, global risk assets are expected to outperform, with a bullish trend in both domestic stocks and bonds [3][20] - The report highlights a significant divergence in the performance of global equity markets, with the US stock market leading due to the tech sector and AI trends, while emerging markets show mixed results [11][14] - The domestic bond market is projected to experience a bull run, with long-term interest rates dropping below 2%, driven by a weak economic backdrop and strong institutional demand [25][16] Group 2 - The commodity market is undergoing a bottom adjustment, with gold prices supported by geopolitical risks and central bank demand, while oil prices are expected to remain under pressure due to oversupply and slowing demand [6][18] - The report emphasizes the importance of policy shifts, particularly the "New Nine Articles," which aim to promote high-quality development in the capital market and enhance investor confidence [36][29] - The report outlines three main investment themes for 2025: high dividend strategies in a low-interest environment, recovery in consumer sectors, and focus on TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and machinery sectors driven by favorable policies [15][18]