交运行业周专题2024W52：票价同比降幅显著收窄，首批成品油出口配额下发

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry [19] Core Insights - The international passenger volume has fully recovered, and the year-on-year decline in ticket prices has significantly narrowed [2][5] - The first batch of refined oil export quotas for 2025 has been issued, totaling 19 million tons, which is flat year-on-year and may boost the refined oil transportation market in the short term [16][42] - The air freight market is entering a seasonal downturn, with a continuous decline in the volume and price of Mongolian coal [48] Summary by Sections Passenger Transport - As of December 27, 2023, the seven-day moving average of domestic flight volume has recovered to 106% of the same period in 2019, and passenger volume has reached 110% [51] - The international flight volume has recovered to 95% of the same period in 2019, with international passenger volume at 103% [51] - Domestic passenger load factor is at 84.8%, up 1.3 percentage points year-on-year compared to 2019, while international load factor is at 80.5%, up 5.1 percentage points [10][15] Shipping - The average VLCC-TCE rate has decreased by 2.4% to $17,000 per day, with an increase in cargo volume before the Christmas holiday [16][42] - The shipping market is experiencing fluctuations, with the SCFI index rising by 2.9% to 2,460 points [16][42] - The first batch of refined oil export quotas is expected to support the refined oil transportation market [16][42] Logistics - The air freight price index for Hong Kong/Pudong has decreased by 3.2% and 6.9% week-on-week, with year-on-year declines of 7.1% and 6.2% respectively [48] - The average daily traffic volume for Mongolian coal has decreased, with the short-haul average price at 54 yuan per ton, down 1 yuan [48]