国金证券：国金晨讯-20250102

Market Overview - As of the market close on December 31, 2024, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.63%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 2.40%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 2.93% [3][15]. - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1,345.8 billion [3]. Sector Performance - Among the 31 first-level industries, the sectors with the largest declines included Electronics (-4.06%), Computers (-4.01%), Non-bank Financials (-3.91%), Media (-3.09%), and Communications (-2.86%) [18][32]. Key Investment Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of "spring rally" and suggests a focus on small and mid-cap technology growth stocks. The rebound is attributed to credit expectation recovery and valuation expansion [18]. - Preferred sectors for growth include TMT (Technology, Media, Telecommunications), particularly Electronics and Computers, as well as high-end manufacturing such as robotics and military industry [18]. - The report also highlights the significance of technology-related equipment, which is expected to benefit from fiscal policy investments and various thematic catalysts [18]. Quantitative Strategy Insights - A high-frequency "gold" portfolio strategy based on the equal-weighted combination of three high-frequency factors has achieved an annualized excess return of 10.37% with a maximum drawdown of 6.04% [8]. - An enhanced strategy combining high-frequency factors with three effective fundamental factors recorded an annualized excess return of 14.94% and a maximum drawdown of 4.52% [8]. January Strategy Recommendations - The report suggests that the "spring rally" may accelerate, recommending a focus on small-cap growth styles [24][31]. - The strategy emphasizes the selection of stocks with strong recovery potential, particularly in the technology sector, while also considering consumer sectors such as social services and maternal and infant products [18][24].