八方股份：国内电踏车电机龙头，渠道去库短期承压

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating an expectation of a relative performance improvement of over 5% compared to the benchmark in the next six months [6][10]. Core Views - The company is the largest electric bicycle motor supplier in China, with a mature global layout focused on the European and American markets. However, its performance is currently under pressure due to high inventory levels in distribution channels and sluggish demand in key markets like Germany and the Netherlands [9][10]. - The report highlights that while short-term challenges exist, the long-term market potential remains significant due to low penetration rates of electric bicycles in Europe and the U.S. The company is actively participating in international exhibitions and launching mature solutions to address market needs [9][10]. Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 1.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 50 million yuan, down 57.5% year-on-year. The gross margin was 25.6%, a decline of 1.7 percentage points year-on-year [9]. - The report provides earnings forecasts for 2024-2026, estimating net profits of 70 million yuan, 94 million yuan, and 123 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 80x, 60x, and 45x [10]. - The company's cash flow from operating activities for the first three quarters of 2024 was 5 million yuan, a significant decrease of 88.8% year-on-year, indicating a need for improvement in cash flow management [9][10].