12月PMI点评：制造业PMI季节性回落，仍保持扩张

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - December manufacturing PMI recorded at 50.1%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points (pct) month-on-month, but remains in the expansion zone[36] - Large enterprises manufacturing PMI at 50.5%, down 0.4pct; medium enterprises at 50.7%, up 0.7pct; small enterprises at 48.5%, down 0.6pct[22] - New orders and new export orders indices both increased by 0.2pct, while the import index rose by 2.0pct[28] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing PMI Developments - Non-manufacturing business activity index rose to 52.2%, an increase of 2.2pct from the previous month, indicating significant improvement in non-manufacturing sector[10] - Service industry business activity index at 52.0%, up 1.9pct, the highest since April; construction industry index at 53.2%, up 3.5pct[10] - The overall economic outlook is improving, with expectations for business development stabilizing and increasing[34] Group 3: Economic Policy and Future Outlook - Central economic work conference emphasizes the need for more proactive macro policies for 2025, focusing on fiscal policy and potential changes in U.S. tariffs[34] - The likelihood of economic stabilization is increasing, with a focus on the impact of macroeconomic policies and market conditions[34] - The bond market may face pressure due to increased government bond supply and potential economic recovery exceeding expectations[41]