GEELY AUTO(00175) 民生证券·2025-01-02 06:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 14.82 HKD, corresponding to a PE ratio of 9/11/8 for the years 2024-2026 [3][18]. Core Insights - The company achieved a total wholesale sales volume of 210,000 units in December, representing a year-on-year increase of 43% and a full-year total of 2.177 million units, up 32% year-on-year. The new energy vehicle (NEV) sales reached 111,206 units in December, up 84% year-on-year, with a penetration rate of 52.9% [3]. - For 2025, the company targets a sales volume of 2.71 million units, with a projected year-on-year growth of approximately 25%. The NEV sales target is set at 1.5 million units, expecting a year-on-year growth of about 69% [3]. - The launch of the GEA architecture's first plug-in hybrid product, the Galaxy Starship 7, is expected to enhance the company's market share in the NEV segment, with initial delivery volumes exceeding 10,000 units within 13 days of launch [3]. - The company has increased its stake in Zeekr and gained control over Lynk & Co, which is anticipated to improve internal resource integration and operational efficiency [3]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 224.78 billion, 277.69 billion, and 308.83 billion CNY, respectively. Net profit estimates are 16.04 billion, 12.58 billion, and 16.32 billion CNY for the same period [2][3]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted at 1.59, 1.25, and 1.62 CNY for 2024-2026, respectively [2][3]. - The report highlights a significant increase in net profit growth rate for 2024 at 202.1%, followed by a decrease in 2025 and a recovery in 2026 [2].