商用车2025年投资策略：红利优选

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Sell," with an expected stock price decline of more than 15% relative to the benchmark over the next six months [2]. Core Views - The report highlights that Yutong Bus is expected to see significant performance improvements driven by optimized export regions, particularly in high-end markets like Europe, where sales are projected to grow substantially [5]. - The report anticipates a new cycle of stock price increases for Yutong in 2025, supported by strong sales and performance catalysts [7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of both domestic and international demand in driving the bus industry forward, with expectations of continued growth in 2025 [65]. Summary by Sections Yutong Bus - Yutong's export performance is expected to exceed expectations in the first three quarters of 2024, primarily due to high sales growth in the European high-end bus market [5]. - The company is projected to maintain a competitive edge with established sales channels and after-sales networks, leading to significant export volume growth and high vehicle value retention [5]. - Forecasted net profits for Yutong from 2024 to 2026 are expected to be 33.1 billion, 41.1 billion, and 49.6 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 82%, 24%, and 21% respectively [18]. King Long Automobile - King Long is expected to recover 40% of minority shares in Xiamen King Long by 2025, which will enhance the company's net profit and improve profitability through asset integration [20]. - The projected net profits for King Long from 2024 to 2026 are 1.8 billion, 4.4 billion, and 6.4 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 134%, 153%, and 45% respectively [20]. - The report indicates that King Long's market share in the domestic market has been on a continuous upward trend since 2017, with a market share of 24% in the first eleven months of 2024 [27]. Industry Outlook - The bus industry is expected to experience a dual-frequency resonance of domestic and international demand, with significant growth anticipated in both sectors [65]. - The report forecasts that domestic and export sales for buses will see year-on-year increases of 23%, 20%, and 40% for overall, export, and new energy buses respectively in 2025 [65]. - The report suggests that the bus industry is entering a new growth cycle, driven by policy support and recovering demand, particularly in the public transport sector [25].